By Suren Sargsyan published in The Armenian Mirror-Spectator
In an article for the Mirror-Spectator published in July, I argued that Armenia’s absence from the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit is a strategic error by its government. Also, in that same article I was mentioning that regional powers in the South Caucasus — Russia, Iran, and Turkey have sought to reduce Western geopolitical influence in the region, while China emerges as a new player in the South Caucasus. It joined the club opposing Western presence and countering American interests, especially the US’s stance against China. All this suggests that Armenia cannot pursue its foreign policies in isolation amid the rivalry in the South Caucasus.
Recently, it was announced that Armenia will have a high-level delegation at the upcoming BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) summit in Kazan, Russia, with the Armenian prime minister visiting. This follows a press conference where Nikol Pashinyan made notable positive gestures toward Russia, thanking Russian border guards for their work at Zvartnots Airport after their departure at Armenia’s request in August 2024. During his conference, Pashinyan acknowledged Russia’s potential role in mediating the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process and dismissed discussions about the withdrawal of the Russian 102nd military base from Armenia. He emphasized the importance of maintaining respectful relations with Russia and resolving issues through constructive dialogue.
All this seems like public preparation for the announcement of his attendance at the BRICS summit in Russia. Some people in Armenia called the decision of Pashinyan to go to Russia as a balanced implementation of foreign policy or even as an example of complementarism (foreign policy concept during President Kocharyan administration). In reality, I believe the prime minister is compelled to go to the BRICS summit. A few weeks ago, it was revealed that Turkey had already applied to join BRICS, with Azerbaijan also showing interest. It is possible that the meeting in Russia will officially kick off these processes. This indicates that all of Armenia’s neighbors, except Georgia, are showing interest in BRICS and want to deepen cooperation with the organization by becoming member states.
The situation in Georgia is quite intriguing. Its upcoming elections in October could significantly influence its foreign policy direction. If a government is formed that aims to strengthen ties with Russia and enacts the foreign agents law, forcing registration of organizations that receive more than 20 percent of their funding from abroad, Georgia’s relations with the European Union — along with its economic ties and current preferences—could be jeopardized. This would compel Georgia to seek new economic partners and platforms to support its exports, potentially increasing interest in strengthening ties with BRICS.
Notably, Iran became a BRICS member earlier this year and is actively collaborating with the organization and its member states. Prior to joining BRICS, Iran also became a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, facilitating its entry into BRICS. Azerbaijan is preparing to join BRICS while actively cooperating with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Turkey is also engaged with the SCO and aims for BRICS membership. Iran is already a BRICS member, and Georgia’s status will become clearer by the end of October.
Thus, Armenia finds itself almost entirely surrounded by BRICS members or potential members, which means that Armenia will have little alternative but to deepen its relations with the organization and possibly even seek membership. It is clear that the regional countries will not allow Armenia to pursue a different orientation if they themselves are aligning with BRICS or similar international organizations. All of these countries have geopolitical interests, and Armenia cannot be excluded from the regional mosaic or the overall regional economic structure.
BRICS, with China as its economic powerhouse, has also sparked significant interest in Arab countries, including Egypt and United Arab Emirates, which means that BRICS is getting bigger geographically, larger in terms of its economic market, and richer with member states concerning their GDP.
I am not advocating for Armenia to join BRICS, but I believe that in light of current geopolitical realities, Armenia must swiftly and strategically navigate a changing world. Adopting an anti-American, anti-European, anti-Russian, or anti-Iranian foreign policy is not an option. We must avoid these missteps and pursue a pragmatic approach to safeguard our statehood and territorial integrity. Armenia needs to align its interests with key external players and cooperate on common grounds instead of conflicts.
Currently, Armenia’s foreign policy appears cautious, avoiding actions against external actors’ interests, even when such actions align with its own national interests. This may appear pragmatic, but it is actually a fearful, unprincipled, and contradictory stance on national interests that must be eliminated.
