The plan for the development of the Armenian energy system for 2020 – 2036 at the lowest cost according to the TIMES model implies an increase in gas prices and the closure of the Armenian nuclear power plant, said director of the Center for Energy Strategy Vahan Sargsyan Tuesday at the presentation of the plan.
The expert, introducing the TIMES model, noted that the most important are the GDP indicators, whose growth in 2018 was at 6.75%, for 2020 growth is projected at 4.65%, and from 2022 – at 4 ,5%.
“The growth in electricity demand will grow by an average of 1.7% per year, despite a decrease in population. The growth in the demand for useful energy in Armenia is facilitated by the trade sector with an average consumption growth of 4.4%, while agriculture accounts for only 0.2% and industry – 2.2%. Until 2028, electricity losses in the distribution network will be at the level of 8.2%, and this figure will remain unchanged. At the same time, it is calculated that the level of import and export of 2018 will continue until 2036,” he added.
According to him, it is expected that the price of natural gas at the border by 2027 will increase to $ 299 per 1,000 cubic meters.
“The Armenian nuclear power plant will be decommissioned from 2027, and the Hrazdan TPP from 2021. It is assumed that in 2022 the Masrik-1 solar power station and the Renko combined cycle gas power plant will be introduced into the country’s energy system,” he noted.
Vahan Sargsyan explained that this model envisages structural costs worth more than $ 40 million by 2036.
